Projection bias occurs because a person maybe in a particular visceral (emotional) state while making the prediction, while he maybe in a different state while actually experiencing the event. For example, a person maybe rested, hungry or sexually aroused while making a choice for happiness, while he maybe tired, satiated or sexually unaroused while experiencing the selection.
Thus a hungry person tends to pick up a lot of varied food-stuff from the market, which he may not actually enjoy later.
People might tend to understand that their tastes may change, however they may systematically underestimate the magnitudes of these changes.
Projection bias may occur not only when people make predictions for their own happiness, but also when they make choices for others.
Thursday, April 9, 2009
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